June 7, 2022

     The Orioles young, left-handed centerfielder is off to a sluggish start this year after breaking out in a stunning fashion last year, when he changed from a switch-hitter to exclusively lefty.  Should the Orioles have sold high on him while they could? Is the Cedric Mullins from last year, or this year the one you should expect? 

     First off, his average is not down because he is striking out more or trying to hit for more power; his strikeout percentage is about the same (only 0.5% higher) and his home run rate has been buzz sawed by more than half (from 4.4% to 2.1%). His BADIP (batting average on balls in play) has also been much lower than last season, coming in at 46 points lower. As a result, his batting line is .236/.299/.368 with a .667 OPS compared to last year’s line of .291/.360/.518 with a .878 OPS. His OPS has dropped by .211 points! He has become a borderline starter instead of last year’s all star season. He, in fact, was voted ninth in the AL MVP voting last year.     

      One thing that could be affecting Mullins is his launch angle, which has gone up 4.8 degrees from last year, perhaps signifying he is hitting more pop-ups. His sweet spot percentage is also way down from last year; from 35.7 to 28.4. That will make a HUGE difference in his quality of contact, which in turn will lower his ability to get on base and his power. This also shows in his barrel percentage, which has dropped as well. Another astonishing difference is his batting average against breaking and off-speed pitches.  His batting average against those pitches have both plunged by more than 100 points. His average against fastballs is virtually the same. According to Statcast, Mullins may have gotten somewhat lucky against breaking and off-speed pitches last year, bringing an average of .284 against those pitches, down to .254. That however doesn’t explain why he’s hitting .178 against those pitches this year, especially since spider-tack enhanced movement at the beginning of last year. 

     With the advanced stats he has, he would still have a .236 average this season according to Statcast. This means he is not unlucky with the contact he is making. His xSLG for last year perhaps shows he was getting fortunate last year, having a 71 point split. This would make his OPS .806 instead of .878. While this is most definitely not a .667 OPS like this year, it is safe to say the Orioles should have predicted some sort of drop-off. 

     I believe the Orioles should have sold high on him while they could, considering he might be in his 30s by the time they will be competing in the division. Given Mullins’ track record prior to 2021 (he never did much in the majors before then), they should have never bet that he would return to that form, instead getting even more prospects, who are obviously needed in a rebuilding setting.