June 15, 2022
The Cincinnati Reds are no longer the worst team in the MLB (they got off to a historically bad start with a 3-22 record in their first 25 games, which is the second worst start to a season by any team since 1900), but they still have basically no chance of making the postseason. Since then, they have a 20-16 record, pulling themselves closer and closer to the also not very good Cubs and Pirates. They are better than the Nationals, A’s, and Royals now. They do not have a chance at even a wild card spot, however, being behind the Braves and Giants by 12.5 games. This is a team that definitely needs to consider selling off some pieces at the deadline to get some more youth.
Luis Castillo: Yep. The name that everyone knows by now, at least for those who have been reading trade rumors websites for what feels like the last 5 years. (Probably not that long, but it seems like it.) By now I don’t have any confidence that the Reds will actually trade him, but I think they should. In what is now his 6th year, Castillo has dealt with a shoulder injury so he has only eight starts. Despite this, he has a 3.33 ERA in 46 innings and 43 K’s this season. Castillo is starting to lose some of his value as he grows older and he loses years of control. The Reds have thought they could compete at most of the Trade deadlines recently, but this year they have no excuse. There is no reason to keep him this year or next year while they will more than likely try and rebuild. For his career, Castillo has a 3.69 ERA in 746.1 innings in 130 starts. He has struck out 9.7 batters per 9 innings as well. He has been a productive, top of the rotation starter for the Reds overall. Castillo mixes in four different pitches, all around 20% to 28% of the time. He uses a Sinker, Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball, and a Slider. According to Statcast, some similar pitchers as far as Velocity and movement are Sandy Alcantara, Brandon Woodruff, and Sixto Sanchez, two of whom are bonafide aces and the other a once top prospect who had a good season before being on the injured list for most of the last couple of years. Castillo has great velocity on his fastball that averages 96 MPH. He has relatively average Barrel, HardHit, and Sweet Spot percentages, but a well below average launch angle (which is good for Castillo in case you didn’t know). He induces an above average amount of ground balls as a result of this low launch angle. Castillo has been consistent with most of his stats, so he seems to be a reliable option to trade for. Some teams that could use Castillo are the Braves, Dodgers, Twins, White Sox, and Red Sox. Castillo will be a free agent in 2024, so he has an extra year of control.
Kyle Farmer: Every team could use a utility player, and Farmer certainly fits that role. He has played SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, Catcher, and Leftfield in his Major League career. He doesn’t have all that many innings at catcher and leftfield in the majors, but he came up as a catcher in the minors and caught 1,564 innings. Someone who could cover catcher AND shortstop could be incredibly valuable for a lot of teams. He is having a solid year at the plate so far, with a .283/.343/.435 line with a .778 OPS. This year is his second year as a full-time player in the Majors. Last year he hit .263/.316/.416 with a .732 OPS. He was also an above average fielder at shortstop, which is a premium position. That is good production for a super utility player for sure. For example, Kiké Hernandez had a .250/.337/.449 line with a .786 OPS last year. Hernandez is considered to be either the best or one of the best utility players out there right now. Hernandez does have a slightly better glove, but can’t catch like Farmer can. Statcast actually expects Farmer to be performing better than he is, giving him a .294 xBA and a .457 xSLG. He has had a lot of success against off-speed pitches this year, having a .360 batting average against those pitches. The 31-year-old utility man might not be traded, but some teams might be looking to pick him up, especially if a player of theirs goes down. Some teams that could be interested are the Braves (if Albies is out for more time than expected), the Angels, and the Padres. Other teams could be added to that list such as the Yankees if there are some injuries. Farmer has 2 years of control after this one.
Tyler Mahle: A 27-year-old righthanded starter, Mahle broke out the last two years after struggling in 2018 and 2019, which were his first two years. He had a 3.75 ERA last year in 180 innings and 33 starts with 210 K’s. His ERA is a bit up this year, at 4.46, but his strikeout numbers remain about the same and his walk numbers are similar. Statcast indicates that he has gotten unlucky so far by giving him a 3.24 xERA. The contact quality remains about the same as last year, but his flyball% has gone up by 8% and his launch angle against has gone up by 4 degrees. Other than that, there is not much difference in his underlying stats. Mahle throws his 4-Seam fastball 50.3% of the time and his Split Finger 26.1% of the time. He will also mix in a slider 13.4% of the time, and a cutter 10.1% of the time. He throws the cutter almost exclusively to lefties and his slider almost exclusively to righties (6 cutters to righties compared to 131 to lefties and 12 sliders to lefties compared to 170 to righties). He averages 93.6 MPH on his fastball, so he doesn’t rely solely on velocity. Mahle will probably be a major target for teams looking for pitching help at the deadline. Some teams that could go after him are the Red Sox, Dodgers, Twins, Rays, Braves, and Astros. Mahle is a free agent after next year.
Brandon Drury: Drury has had a very good start to the year at the plate, making it seem more and more likely a contender will be interested in acquiring him. Drury has played everywhere but Centerfield and catcher in his career, making him very versatile. He might not be particularly great with the glove in any of those spots, but he is at least serviceable. His value has come from his bat this year. He has a .266/.335/.503 line with a .838 OPS. While his career stats are much worse than this, with a .251/.301/.424 line and a .725 OPS, many of his underlying stats support his breakout. His Barrel% is almost double league average, his HardHit% is in the 90th percentile, and his Whiff% is in the 86th percentile, suggesting he is making very solid contact while not missing the ball too often. If he continues to hit like this through July, I find it almost certain he will find a new home this Trade Deadline, especially since he is a Free Agent after this season. Some teams that could utilize his services are the Braves (again, if Albies is going to be out for longer than expected), the Angels, and the Phillies.