June 13, 2022
As they look to retool from their World Series team in 2019, The Nationals never really expected to compete in the crowded NL East this year. They have lived up to their small expectations, with a 23-39 record, which hasn’t been nearly enough to get out of the division’s cellar. They do, however, have some interesting players as contenders to consider trading for.
Carl Edwards Jr.: Edwards Jr., a righthanded reliever who came up with the Cubs in 2015, won a World Series in 2016, giving him valuable experience. He had three good years with the Cubs from 2016 to 2018, before falling completely off the table in 2019. Between then and now he has had 10.1 innings (until this year.) His career ERA is still promising, coming in at 3.62 in 203.2 Career innings pitched. Edwards has revitalized his career this year. He currently has a 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings and 16 strikeouts. That is certainly nothing to scoff at. His xERA isn’t much worse, coming in at a 2.58 ERA. Hitters are currently hitting .000 against his curveball this season. That is not a typo. Seriously. It’s not like he never uses that pitch either. He uses his curve 22.9% of the time. This of course is a small number compared to his 65.8 4-Seam fastball usage, but still not tiny. The xBA against his curveball is still a miniscule .080, meaning everyone hits like Wilcy Moore did in 1927 against it (Moore was a pitcher who hit exactly .080 for the season and is one of my favorite players of all time). Anyway, back to Edwards. His K% is currently 25.4%, which is 3.4% above league average. His HardHit% is in line with his great years in Chicago at just 28.2% (MLB average is currently 35.6%). Edwards is having an impressive comeback season this year, and it could very well land him as a contender at the Deadline. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, White Sox, and Twins could also look to add him. Edwards will be a Free Agent after this season.
Paolo Espino: Another righty reliever, Espino is now 35 years old. He, however, has less career innings than Edwards, coming in at 170. Most of this time came last year as a swingman for the Nats, when he made 19 starts in 35 games pitched. He had a 4.27 ERA. Espino started out in the minors in 2007 as a 20-year-old. He has certainly endured for a long time to get to this point. This year he has pitched fantastic, mostly out of the bullpen. He has a 2.08 ERA with 22 K’s in 30.1 innings. Espino allows more contact than most, but not because he is a ground-ball pitcher. He allows about 9% more flyballs than league average. He nonetheless has been effective so far this season. Part of this could be he walks almost nobody. His walk percentage is less than half of league average. His curveball has been by far his most effective pitch, even though he uses his fastball and slider more often this year. Batters are hitting just .121 against it this year, compared to a .283 line against his fastball and a .231 average against his slider. This would make since he has a 98th Percentile spin rate on his curveball. I would bet a contender would like to see him use his curveball much more than he is. He can add depth to a bullpen and eat much-needed innings at the end of the year. Teams that could use him are the Red Sox, Phillies, Twins, and Dodgers. Espino will be a Free Agent in 2027.
Nelson Cruz: Cruz is likely the most obvious choice for this list (unless you are a believer Soto will be traded this season). He has had a relatively down year at the plate this year by his standards, but at age 41 is still remarkable. The 7-time All Star will still be a hot name on the trade market this year, just like last year. He has a .267/.348/.408 line this year with a .755 OPS. However, he has been blazing hot in his last 30 games, with a .377/.455/.566 line with a 1.021 OPS. If he continues his hot streak into July, he will up his trade stock. He has a great track record, with a .869 Career OPS and 456 Homers. He would be a great fit for any teams looking for an impact bat in the DH spot. Cruz is having a career low in K Rate, which is always promising. His barrel and HardHit percentages continue to be well above league average, like the normal Nelson Cruz we all know. Teams that could use him are the Brewers, Braves, Padres, and Twins. He would be a rental, as he is a Free Agent after this season.
Kyle Finnegan: Finnegan, yet another right-handed reliever, came up in 2020 with the Nats at 28 years old. Now at 30, he has established himself as a reliable option in the Nats bullpen. He picked up 11 saves in 2021, showing he can also close if you need him to. He has a 3.47 ERA in 23.1 innings and 28 strikeouts in 25 outings this season. According to Statcast, his xERA is 2.84, showing he could be better than he is currently performing. Finnegan heavily uses his power sinker. His usage rate on that pitch is a whopping 74.1%! This, not surprisingly at all, leads to a well above average groundball%, coming in at 12.4% above league average. His strikeout percentage is also quite high, which is unusual for a groundball heavy pitcher. His Walk % is lower than his previous two years, but still 0.8% above league average. He has improved by 2.4% from last year though. He is a valuable reliever by a lot of standards most people look at; strikeouts, velocity, and groundball %. His HardHit% is absolutely horrible (5th percentile), but his barrel rate is also elite at the same time (91st percentile) which is a huge split in something I would think is connected. Last year he had a better HardHit % and a worse Barrel Rate so there really is no trend. His numbers as far as ERA have remained the same through all this, so I will assume it is nothing to worry about. He should still be a reliever the Nationals will get some calls about. Teams that could use him are the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Twins, and White Sox. Finnegan will be a Free Agent in 2026, which certainly makes him a controllable reliever.