June 16, 2022
In what has been a terrific season for the Yankees, they have had the second most productive lineup at scoring runs this season (they score 5.05 Runs Per Game while the Dodgers score 5.08) and producing the league’s highest homer number at 100. They are also striking out at a below league average rate this season, which was most definitely not the case last year when they had the 6th most strikeouts. A lot of players have had fantastic years at the plate for the Yankees such as Judge, Stanton, Torres, and Rizzo. The main difference for this team from last year has been their pitching, which while good last year has turned elite this year, thanks to the breakout of Cortes and the return of Severino. Part of this is most likely the trades Cashman made this year, bringing in Trevino, Kiner-Falefa and Donaldson to bolster their defense. This has led to an MLB leading 46-16 record and a +130 run differential. Looking at their underlying statistics, are the Yankees over or underperforming?
Well one thing is for certain, Statcast indicates that Judge should either be performing how he is right now or EVEN BETTER than he is. He is given a .785 xSLG percentage which is 102 points higher than his current slugging percentage that already leads the league by 32 points. Now that’s scary. As a whole, the team’s xSLG is 72 points higher than their current Slugging percentage. Their HardHit%, Barrel%, and Exit Velocity all support their offense by being well above average. Even their Whiff% is at league average. Every underlying stat seems to support their offense being as good as they are, even with Gallo, Hicks, and Higashioka having low averages.
As far as fielding goes, they have been much better there as well. Even without including Gary Sanchez at catcher, the team had -23 Outs Above Average in the field. This year they have +1. That is a huge difference. A lot of it was Gleyber Torres not really being able to play shortstop very well, and while Kiner-Falefa has actually been below average in OAA, he is still much better than Torres. Donaldson is also a better fielder than Urshela at third base. These defensive upgrades my seem small but they do have a huge impact on the field and mentally for the pitchers. Being afraid of the hitter making contact will lead to more walks, overthrows, and trying to nip the corners.
The catchers have also had a large part in their success. Trevino has not only hit well, but has been great defensively. According to Statcast, he has the second most Catcher Framing Runs and the second highest strike rate. This is an obvious upgrade over Gary Sanchez who had the fourth lowest Catcher Framing Runs and just a 45.9% strike rate. That is significantly lower than Trevino’s 52.4% strike rate. 6.5% more strikes is a big help to the pitchers. Trevino also allows less passed balls than Sanchez did.
The pitchers for the Yankees have been performing quite well this year, being led by Nestor Cortes’s breakout year. He has a 1.94 ERA in 69.2 innings and 75 strikeouts. His style of pitching is not conventional to today’s game as he doesn’t rely on velocity for success. His 4-Seam fastball averages just 91.2 MPH and his cutter just 86.5 MPH, but he is nonetheless extremely effective. Nestor’s xERA is 2.35 according to Statcast. Gerrit Cole is doing his usual thing this year non-surprisingly. Oddly enough, Cole allows more solid contact than league average, and has for quite a while. That hasn’t stopped him from having a 3.33 ERA this year. Statcast gives him a 3.04 xERA. Jameson Taillon has thrived by staying in the strike zone this year, allowing nearly no walks. He has a 99th percentile walk rate this season. He gives up a fair amount of hits but limits the damage, leading to a 2.93 ERA. Statcast gives him a 3.32 xERA. Like Taillon, Jordan Montgomery has walked almost nobody. Also like him, Montgomery has a high BAA (batting average against), at .278. He has a 2.70 ERA, but Statcast indicate his stats should be higher, giving him a 3.81 xERA, which is more in line to his past performances. Last but not least is Luis Severino, who just came back from Tommy John Surgery this season. Severino has been excelling this year, with a 2.80 ERA. He throws an average of 96 MPH with his 4-Seam fastball and has a slider that opponents are hitting .149 this year against. According to Statcast he should be performing even better than he is, giving him a .256 xERA.
Looking at these stats is making me think this Yankees team is for real. I mean they probably won’t win 120 games, but I expect them to be the best team by the end of the regular season barring injury. I think they are less vulnerable in the postseason than in years past, and they could possibly even make it to the World Series this year. We will see.