July 27, 2022

     The Red Sox have fallen behind the Orioles(!) in the AL East, going straight into the cellar. They are still only 3.5 games back from the third wildcard spot, so they could try to make a push at the deadline. But then again, they probably aren’t World Series contenders even if they make the playoffs, and have some big potential free agents. Also, according to Statcast’s advanced stats, their offense doesn’t really seem like it will improve. Their pitching staff has a lot of question marks, so they won’t be something to bet on for the rest of the season. Because of this, I think the Red Sox should sell at this trade deadline. I would keep Devers, Story, and Verdugo, but try to trade Bogaerts, Martinez, Christian Vazquez, Michael Wacha, and probably Nathan Eovaldi. They should restock their farm system while they can before these guys leave. 

Notable Free Agents after this season: Christian Vazquez, J.D. Martinez, Michael Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi

Notable Potential Free Agents Next Year: Xander Bogaerts (Can Opt-out)

Players with more control to consider: Nick Pivetta (FA after 2024), and Garrett Whitlock (FA after 2026, 2027, or 2028 Club Options)

     Martinez and Bogaerts would get a haul, and Whitlock could net a good return also. I think those three should definitely be available if I’m the Red Sox. Eovaldi and Pivetta could bring back some mid-level prospects. Wacha might not be traded since he is currently injured, but if a team is willing to bet on him he’d get some mid-level prospects as well. I think the farm system will be more important than trying to compete this year for the Red Sox. Since they won’t really be competing this year so I expect them to be sellers.